Small Pairs and Connectors in NLHE
I'm guessing most of you understand the concept of implied odds, but just in case here's the definition Lee Jones gives in his excellent boook, Winning Low Limit Hold'em:
"Pot odds that do not exist at the moment, but may be included in your calculations because of bets you expect to win if you hit your hand. For instance, you might call with a flush draw on the turn even though the pot isn't offering you quite 4:1 odds (your chance of making the flush) because you're sure you can win a bet from your opponent on the river if you make your flush."
In other words, we're talking about considering the likelihood that future bets will be made when you decide whether to continue with a hand or not.
Generally, the best way to play the small and medium pairs and connectors is to get in as little money as possible up front, and to get the real money in after you've made your hand. That's because they need a lot of help to improve to a strong hand, but if they do you might bust someone. If you have a small or medium pair it's about 7.5:1 against you improving to a set, a full house or quads. That's a fairly long shot. You'd like to avoid investing a lot before the flop, and then you can see if you flop a big hand or a big draw.
Let's look quickly at a couple of hands like this that I think were misplayed. They happened in the same low buy-in NLHE game, with $0.05/$0.10 blinds and a $10 max buy-in.
In the first hand I limped preflop, a player behind me limped, and then the small blind raised it up to 4xBB (4 times the size of the big blind). I called, as did the other limper. The flop came 3h Jh 4h, and the small blind bet about half the size of the pot. I folded, and the other limper called. The turn was Qd. The small blind bet $1, and the other player only had $0.85 left, he called. The small blind had Kd Kh and won, the limper had 2d 2h. After the hand the limper wrotes this in the chat box: "good one that was dumb by me, but w/ 1.85 left.. what could i do."
This is a pretty extreme example of how not to play small pairs. The player with the 22 called a standard sized preflop raise. That's fine, it's not a big price to get in, and if you hit a set you may be able to bust the raiser if they have a big pair. But once you miss the flop, you will probably have to get out. If I play 22 and don't flop a set, I usually don't want to put another cent in the pot after the flop. Any pair beats you there, let alone the possible flush on board when you only have 2h in your hand. If I did continue I'd want to be betting or raising, not calling. At least then you have a chance to take the pot down.
In the second hand I was dealt Ad Kd in the small blind. Two players limped in, and then I moved in for $10. Now, keep in mind that this is not usually how I'd play that hand :) Smart poker players would point out that this is a huge overbet and not neccessary. However, I thought that at least one of these two specific players might call me with a worse hand. One of them was a real calling station, and I hoped he would think I was bluffing.
He did call with 9d 8d. He had a much smaller stack, only $1.50, so most of my bet was returned. I flopped an Ace and a King came on the turn. I won the pot of a little over $3.
Calling off your entire stack preflop in a cash game with 98s is again a pretty obviously bad play, it's another extreme example. I was about a 2:1 favorite preflop. Cash games are really all about the math -- if I could get all my money in preflop as a 2:1 favorite every hand, I'd do it without question. I would definitely make money in the long run.
It was a mistake for the other player to call. You might make that move in a tournament in some situations, especially if there was a lot of money in the pot from blinds and antes, but it's a horrible move in a cash game. A hand like 98s can be very profitable, but you need a good flop.
Two pair is a pretty good flop, although it may be bottom two and the two connected cards on the flop may give someone a straight draw. You could hopefully flop a straight draw or flush draw, but it is about 8:1 against flopping a straight draw and about the same against flopping a flush draw. Then you still need to complete the draw, and you may not be drawing to the nuts (you never will be with the flush draw).
So again, because you're such a longshot, you'd like to get in as little money as possible before the flop. You want to make a big hand or a goood draw there, and if you don't you are probably going to lay it down.
The first hand I mentioned is a perfect example. It's fine to call that raise to 4x the big blind, because you've got your eyes on the opponent's entire stack. If you flop a set and your opponent flops an overpair or something like top pair top kicker (TPTK), you may double up. But if you call that raise and miss, and then the opponent fires again, you need to lay that hand down. The only other strong option is to raise if you have a good read they are bluffing and you think they will lay it down. Calling with two outs is a bad, bad play. (Yes, he also had a flush draw, but only to the deuce.)
So, let's sum up a few general rules for playing small and medium pairs, and small and medium suited connectors.
1) Get to the flop as cheaply as possible. That doesn't mean you can't call a small or standard raise (up to 4xBB), but I wouldn't call much more than that. You might even put in a raise occasionally with some of these hands to mix up your play, but don't do this against a bad opponent. Tricky plays are usually wasted on them.
2) Play these hands from the middle or back, especially the connectors. The later the better. First, if you are in later positon preflop then there are less people to act behind you. What you'd really like to avoid is calling a raise with a hand like 22, and then someone putting in a big reraise behind you. In that situation you're going to have to dump the hand.
Also, you'd rather not play draws out of position in NLHE. Being last to act gives you a lot more flexibility and information. If you flop a good draw and your opponent checks, you now have the option of taking the free card or making a semibluff bet. If the opponent bets, you can call or fold or even make a semibluff raise. By having position you're in control.
3) If you miss the flop be prepared to get away from your hand, especially with three or more players. If you have a small or medium pair and don't flop a set, or you play suited connectors and don't hit a big hand or draw, then you will probably want to fold. There are exceptions of course -- every situation is different, and what you know about the other players in the hand is a huge factor. But if you play a hand like 22 and don't flop your set, you are probably drawing to 2 outs to improve. You'd have to be getting some incredible pot odds (over 20:1) to call a bet on the flop, unless your pair of twos was really the best hand.
4) Keep your stack as big as possible. If you're playing in a online game where the max buy-in is 100xBB, you should buy in for the max every time. And you should rebuy if your stack shrinks, I usually do this when I dip below 80xBB.
This is very important for exactly the reason we have been talking about, implied odds. If another player in the type of game I described earlier has $10 and puts in that standard $0.40 raise, you need to consider both of your stack sizes when deciding whether to play. If you both have $10 or more, then that's great, you could potentially win a whole buy-in. The implied odds are very good.
If he has $10 and you only have $2, then it would be a mathematical mistake to call that same raise heads up with 22 in the hopes of flopping a set. Since you can only win $2 you cannot get the 7.5:1 odds that you need, even counting the implied odds. A $0.40 call to win his $2 is only 5:1. If we look at it that way, the original call in the first example hand was a mistake.
One thing that both of these examples have in common is that the players made these bad plays because their stacks were so small. I doubt either of them would have made those same calls for $10. "What could I do with only $1.85" pretty much says it all. But if you called off even that small of a stack over and over at that size of the game, it would have a big impact (relatively) on your win rate.
If you find yourself in a situation where you're short stacked, either rebuy or leave the game. Don't call off the rest of your chips in a desperation play.
Ted
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